I was prompted by a story this morning to return to read Pres. Bush’s ultimatum to Iraq, bitter reading indeed:

We could wait and hope that Saddam does not give weapons to terrorists, or develop a nuclear weapon to blackmail the world. But I’m convinced that is a hope against all evidence. As Americans, we want peace—we work and sacrifice for peace. But there can be no peace if our security depends on the will and whims of a ruthless and aggressive dictator. I’m not willing to stake one American life on trusting Saddam Hussein.

Failure to act would embolden other tyrants, allow terrorists access to new weapons and new resources, and make blackmail a permanent feature of world events.

Seven years into his presidency the pattern is old hat, but I note how much the president’s speech even then relied not upon observations of the world, but upon suppositions about what will happen if such-and-such other thing were to occur. I submit to you that it is a poor way to go about understanding the world—especially if you are neither very good at prognosticating nor at judging others.